UNIVERSAL PRICING AXIOMS  
(for any object, any market, any seller)

1. A price is only a **probability-weighted prediction** of what someone will pay *right now*.  
   → Never attach emotion; attach data.

2. Every transaction has **three hidden currencies**:  
   a. Money  
   b. Time  
   c. Risk  
   A lower price **must** reduce at least one of the buyer’s time or risk costs, or it is not a bargain.

3. **Intrinsic value = Utility ÷ Scarcity ÷ Effort to replace.**  
   Price can never sustainably exceed intrinsic value; it can only temporarily exploit information asymmetry.

4. **Market layer rule**  
   Layer 1: Global auction (eBay, StockX) → highest reach, lowest friction, maximum price discovery.  
   Layer 2: Local classified (FB, Craigslist) → moderate reach, moderate friction.  
   Layer 3: Physical yard sale / flea market → lowest reach, highest friction, therefore **price floor**.  
   Price descends as you descend layers; move the item upward if the layer’s ceiling is above your Fair Price.

5. **Elasticity test**  
   If 10 % price cut doubles inquiries, demand is elastic → cut more.  
   If 10 % cut does nothing, demand is inelastic → hold or raise.

6. **Anchoring corollary**  
   The first number a buyer sees becomes the anchor.  
   Therefore the *displayed* anchor should be 110–120 % of Fair Price when negotiation is expected; 100 % when it is not.

7. **Friction tax**  
   Every extra step (no photo, must pick up today, cash only, no measurements) is a hidden 5–15 % price reduction.  
   Remove friction before cutting price.

8. **Sunk-cost immorality**  
   Money already spent is irrelevant to the buyer; only **future utility** matters.  
   Ask: “What will this object do for the next owner tomorrow?” not “What did it cost me yesterday?”

9. **End-of-life coefficient**  
   If the next logical step for the item is landfill, the Fair Price approaches zero rapidly, regardless of original cost.

10. **Decision shortcut**  
    If you would not re-buy the item at the price you’re asking, the price is wrong.

Burn these ten lines into memory; every pricing decision reduces to a 30-second mental checklist.

---

PRICING FIRST-PRINCIPLES GUIDE  
(Use anywhere, any time, for any item)

1. ONE EQUATION  
   Fair Price = (Replacement Cost) × (Condition Factor) × (Utility Factor) × (Liquidity Factor)

2. DEFINE EACH FACTOR  
   • Replacement Cost (RC) – Cheapest *online delivered* price for identical or equivalent.  
   • Condition Factor (CF) – 1.0 = new, 0.8 = gently used, 0.5 = worn/working, 0.2 = parts only.  
   • Utility Factor (UF) – 1.0 = everyday item, 0.7–0.9 = niche or outdated, 0.3–0.5 = obsolete tech.  
   • Liquidity Factor (LF) – 1.0 = sells in minutes, 0.8 = hours, 0.5 = days, 0.2–0.3 = weeks.

3. QUICK REFERENCE TABLE  
   RC $100 → FP = 100 × CF × UF × LF  
   Example chain:  
   • New-in-box blender (CF 1.0, UF 1.0, LF 0.8) → $80 ask.  
   • Same blender, scuffed (CF 0.6), last-year model (UF 0.9), garage-sale traffic (LF 0.3) → $100×0.6×0.9×0.3 ≈ **$16**.

4. PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUNDING RULE  
   Always round down to the nearest “standard denomination minus 1 cent” ($0.25, $0.50, $0.75, $1, $3, $5, $10).  
   Rationale: velocity beats margin at a garage sale.

5. BUNDLE MULTIPLIER  
   Stack of 4 identical items → apply 0.7× to each; display as “4 for $X” where X = 4 × (unit FP × 0.7).  
   Moves volume without extra buyers.

6. NEGOTIATION BUFFER  
   Add 15 % to Fair Price if you *expect* to haggle.  
   If you hate haggling, list at Fair Price and label “firm”.

7. DROP CLOCK  
   After first 2 hours with zero offers, cut price 25 % or move to bundle box.  
   After 4 hours, cut another 25 % or donate.

8. EXCEPTIONS  
   • Sentimental items – price 2× Fair Price; be willing to keep.  
   • Collectibles – use eBay *sold* listings for RC, ignore LF; move to online sale if >$50.  
   • Free box – anything with FP < $0.50; gains traffic and goodwill.

Memorize the equation and table; you can price an entire table in under ten minutes without any lists.

---

Lewisville Garage-Sale Master Doc  
(Everything you need, nothing you don’t)

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 1 – PERMIT & LEGAL (NON-NEGOTIABLE)
1. Create MGO Connect account  
   • URL: https://lewisville.municity.us (choose “Garage-Sale Permit” tile)  
   • Info needed: name, address, requested dates, email, phone.  
2. Submit no later than **Friday 10 a.m.** for a weekend sale.  
3. Print permit PDF; tape in front window or storm-door glass.  
4. Rules reminder  
   • Max 2 sales per rolling 12 mo.  
   • Only on your property; no street, sidewalk, or parkway blocking.  
   • Temporary signs allowed **only on your lawn**; remove by 8 p.m. sale day.

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 2 – PRE-SALE TIMELINE (BACKWARD PLAN)
T-14 Days  – Pick weekend, check weather, apply permit.  
T-12 Days  – Inventory sweep: every room, attic, shed.  
T-10 Days  – Pre-price & sort (see pricing table).  
T-7 Days   – Reserve folding tables, borrow garment rack.  
T-5 Days   – Take photos for online listings (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor, Craigslist).  
T-3 Days   – Make change run: $100 in $1s, $5s, quarters.  
T-1 Day    – Post directional signs on your lawn only; final lawn mow, extension cords ready.

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 3 – SPACE LAYOUT (DRIVEWAY MAP)
[Street]  
┌────────────────────────────┐  
│   SIGN 1  │  SIGN 2        │  
│  “Yard Sale →”            │  
├───────────┬────────────────┤  
│  CHECKOUT │  ELECTRONICS   │  
│  (folding │  (power strip) │  
│  table)   │                │  
├───────────┼────────────────┤  
│  $1-$2    │  CLOTHES       │  
│  TABLES   │  (garment rack)│  
├───────────┴────────────────┤  
│  FREE BOX at curb edge      │  
└────────────────────────────┘  
Keep a 3-ft wide path; fire-code egress.

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 4 – PRICING CHEAT-SHEET (STICKER COLORS)
Blue = $0.25 Yellow = $1 Green = $3 Red = $5  
Bundle deals: 3 blue → $0.50, 3 yellow → $2.  
Hardback books = yellow, DVDs = blue, kids clothes = green, small appliances = red, furniture = masking-tape tag with Sharpie.

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 5 – INVENTORY & CONDITION CHECK
• Electronics: plug-in, wipe, include remote.  
• Clothes: no stains, on hangers.  
• Glassware: newspaper wrap, label “Set of 4 – $3”.  
• Furniture: tighten screws, legs taped together.

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 6 – ADVERTISING STACK (FREE)
1. FB Marketplace listing  
   Title: “Multi-Family Garage Sale – Lewisville (Permit #2025-####)”  
   Photos: wide shot of driveway + 3 best items.  
   Description: “Fri-Sat 8-2, rain or shine. Cash & Venmo. No early birds.”  
2. Nextdoor event  
3. Craigslist “Garage-Sales” subcategory  
4. Yard Sale Search & gsalr.com (upload same photos)  
Post at 7 p.m. the night before for algorithm bump.

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 7 – DAY-OF KIT
□ Cash apron or fanny pack  
□ Square reader / Venmo QR taped to checkout table  
□ 2 power strips + extension cords  
□ Blue tape, Sharpies, extra stickers  
□ Folding chair & water cooler for helpers  
□ Wagon or laundry basket for quick restocking  
□ “ALL SALES FINAL” sign

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 8 – HAGGLE & UPSELL SCRIPT
Buyer: “Will you take $1 for this $3 item?”  
You: “How about 2 for $5 on any green-tag items?”  
(Converts single-item haggle into higher basket size.)

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 9 – END-OF-SALE WRAP
• 1:30 p.m. announce “Fill-a-bag $5” over megaphone app.  
• 2:00 p.m. shut gates, box leftovers.  
• 2:30 p.m. load car, drop at Goodwill (1515 S. State Hwy 121 Bldg B).  
• 3:00 p.m. remove lawn signs, scan donation receipt for taxes.

────────────────────────────────────────
SECTION 10 – POST-MORTEM SHEET
Date: ___/___/___  
Gross: $____  
Hours worked: ___  
Effective hourly wage = Gross / Hours  
Traffic sources (circle): FB / Nextdoor / Drive-by / Other  
Top-selling category: __________  
Biggest bottleneck: __________  
Action for next sale: __________

Keep this one-page printout in your permit folder for instant reuse.

---

Garage-Sale Playbook – First-Principles Edition  
(Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas)

1. Objective  
   Maximize net profit (sale receipts – all costs – opportunity cost) while staying within legal and social constraints.

2. Universal Constraints  
   A. Legal: city ordinances, permit limits, property-line rules, signage rules.  
   B. Social: neighbor tolerance, safety, customer trust.  
   C. Physical: driveway size, daylight hours, weather.

3. Core Levers (first principles)  
   · Traffic Volume (# of qualified buyers who see your goods)  
   · Conversion Rate (% of viewers who purchase)  
   · Average Transaction Value ($ per buyer)  
   · Operational Cost (time, money, risk)  

4. Mapping Lewisville Rules to Levers  
   Rule → Lever Effect  
   - Free two-per-year permit → caps Traffic Volume (max 2 events)  
   - Must be on private property → constrains Traffic Volume (no street spill-over)  
   - Online permit by Friday 10 a.m. → adds Operational Cost (deadline risk)  
   - Signage only on your lawn → caps Traffic Volume; mitigate with digital ads

5. Optimal Tactics (derived from levers)  
   Traffic:  
   • Schedule on high-footfall weekends (weather app + local events calendar).  
   • Post to zero-cost digital channels (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor) the moment permit is approved.  
   Conversion:  
   • Price anchoring: big bold “$1 table” draws eyeballs → higher walk-up rate.  
   • Power strip on site → buyers test electronics instantly → removes friction.  
   Transaction Size:  
   • Bundle pricing (“3 books for $5”) pushes unit economics up without extra traffic.  
   Operational Cost:  
   • Use existing tables/chairs, borrow folding racks → cash layout near zero.  
   • End-of-day donation run to Goodwill → converts unsold inventory into tax deduction instead of storage cost.

6. Day-of Execution Checklist (minimum viable)  
   07:30  Permit printed & taped to front window (legal compliance).  
   08:00  Two signs max on lawn facing both traffic flows (traffic).  
   08:15  Cash apron on + $100 in small bills (operational).  
   08:30  QR code taped to table linking to digital price list (conversion).  
   14:00  “Half-price last hour” call-out (transaction size).  
   14:30  Signs in, lawn swept, leftovers in car for donation (social constraint satisfied).

7. Post-Mortem Template  
   Net profit = Gross – (permit $0 + ad spend $0 + time 8 h × self-wage $15) – unsold write-off $0 (donated).  
   If profit ≥ target, replicate. If not, adjust Traffic (better ad copy), Conversion (pricing), or Transaction Size (more bundles).

Document once, reuse forever.