diff --git a/random/Garage-Sale.md b/random/Garage-Sale.md index 90e1748..9f24150 100644 --- a/random/Garage-Sale.md +++ b/random/Garage-Sale.md @@ -1,3 +1,198 @@ +UNIVERSAL PRICING AXIOMS +(for any object, any market, any seller) + +1. A price is only a **probability-weighted prediction** of what someone will pay *right now*. + → Never attach emotion; attach data. + +2. Every transaction has **three hidden currencies**: + a. Money + b. Time + c. Risk + A lower price **must** reduce at least one of the buyer’s time or risk costs, or it is not a bargain. + +3. **Intrinsic value = Utility ÷ Scarcity ÷ Effort to replace.** + Price can never sustainably exceed intrinsic value; it can only temporarily exploit information asymmetry. + +4. **Market layer rule** + Layer 1: Global auction (eBay, StockX) → highest reach, lowest friction, maximum price discovery. + Layer 2: Local classified (FB, Craigslist) → moderate reach, moderate friction. + Layer 3: Physical yard sale / flea market → lowest reach, highest friction, therefore **price floor**. + Price descends as you descend layers; move the item upward if the layer’s ceiling is above your Fair Price. + +5. **Elasticity test** + If 10 % price cut doubles inquiries, demand is elastic → cut more. + If 10 % cut does nothing, demand is inelastic → hold or raise. + +6. **Anchoring corollary** + The first number a buyer sees becomes the anchor. + Therefore the *displayed* anchor should be 110–120 % of Fair Price when negotiation is expected; 100 % when it is not. + +7. **Friction tax** + Every extra step (no photo, must pick up today, cash only, no measurements) is a hidden 5–15 % price reduction. + Remove friction before cutting price. + +8. **Sunk-cost immorality** + Money already spent is irrelevant to the buyer; only **future utility** matters. + Ask: “What will this object do for the next owner tomorrow?” not “What did it cost me yesterday?” + +9. **End-of-life coefficient** + If the next logical step for the item is landfill, the Fair Price approaches zero rapidly, regardless of original cost. + +10. **Decision shortcut** + If you would not re-buy the item at the price you’re asking, the price is wrong. + +Burn these ten lines into memory; every pricing decision reduces to a 30-second mental checklist. + +--- + +PRICING FIRST-PRINCIPLES GUIDE +(Use anywhere, any time, for any item) + +1. ONE EQUATION + Fair Price = (Replacement Cost) × (Condition Factor) × (Utility Factor) × (Liquidity Factor) + +2. DEFINE EACH FACTOR + • Replacement Cost (RC) – Cheapest *online delivered* price for identical or equivalent. + • Condition Factor (CF) – 1.0 = new, 0.8 = gently used, 0.5 = worn/working, 0.2 = parts only. + • Utility Factor (UF) – 1.0 = everyday item, 0.7–0.9 = niche or outdated, 0.3–0.5 = obsolete tech. + • Liquidity Factor (LF) – 1.0 = sells in minutes, 0.8 = hours, 0.5 = days, 0.2–0.3 = weeks. + +3. QUICK REFERENCE TABLE + RC $100 → FP = 100 × CF × UF × LF + Example chain: + • New-in-box blender (CF 1.0, UF 1.0, LF 0.8) → $80 ask. + • Same blender, scuffed (CF 0.6), last-year model (UF 0.9), garage-sale traffic (LF 0.3) → $100×0.6×0.9×0.3 ≈ **$16**. + +4. PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUNDING RULE + Always round down to the nearest “standard denomination minus 1 cent” ($0.25, $0.50, $0.75, $1, $3, $5, $10). + Rationale: velocity beats margin at a garage sale. + +5. BUNDLE MULTIPLIER + Stack of 4 identical items → apply 0.7× to each; display as “4 for $X” where X = 4 × (unit FP × 0.7). + Moves volume without extra buyers. + +6. NEGOTIATION BUFFER + Add 15 % to Fair Price if you *expect* to haggle. + If you hate haggling, list at Fair Price and label “firm”. + +7. DROP CLOCK + After first 2 hours with zero offers, cut price 25 % or move to bundle box. + After 4 hours, cut another 25 % or donate. + +8. EXCEPTIONS + • Sentimental items – price 2× Fair Price; be willing to keep. + • Collectibles – use eBay *sold* listings for RC, ignore LF; move to online sale if >$50. + • Free box – anything with FP < $0.50; gains traffic and goodwill. + +Memorize the equation and table; you can price an entire table in under ten minutes without any lists. + +--- + +Lewisville Garage-Sale Master Doc +(Everything you need, nothing you don’t) + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 1 – PERMIT & LEGAL (NON-NEGOTIABLE) +1. Create MGO Connect account + • URL: https://lewisville.municity.us (choose “Garage-Sale Permit” tile) + • Info needed: name, address, requested dates, email, phone. +2. Submit no later than **Friday 10 a.m.** for a weekend sale. +3. Print permit PDF; tape in front window or storm-door glass. +4. Rules reminder + • Max 2 sales per rolling 12 mo. + • Only on your property; no street, sidewalk, or parkway blocking. + • Temporary signs allowed **only on your lawn**; remove by 8 p.m. sale day. + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 2 – PRE-SALE TIMELINE (BACKWARD PLAN) +T-14 Days – Pick weekend, check weather, apply permit. +T-12 Days – Inventory sweep: every room, attic, shed. +T-10 Days – Pre-price & sort (see pricing table). +T-7 Days – Reserve folding tables, borrow garment rack. +T-5 Days – Take photos for online listings (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor, Craigslist). +T-3 Days – Make change run: $100 in $1s, $5s, quarters. +T-1 Day – Post directional signs on your lawn only; final lawn mow, extension cords ready. + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 3 – SPACE LAYOUT (DRIVEWAY MAP) +[Street] +┌────────────────────────────┐ +│ SIGN 1 │ SIGN 2 │ +│ “Yard Sale →” │ +├───────────┬────────────────┤ +│ CHECKOUT │ ELECTRONICS │ +│ (folding │ (power strip) │ +│ table) │ │ +├───────────┼────────────────┤ +│ $1-$2 │ CLOTHES │ +│ TABLES │ (garment rack)│ +├───────────┴────────────────┤ +│ FREE BOX at curb edge │ +└────────────────────────────┘ +Keep a 3-ft wide path; fire-code egress. + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 4 – PRICING CHEAT-SHEET (STICKER COLORS) +Blue = $0.25 Yellow = $1 Green = $3 Red = $5 +Bundle deals: 3 blue → $0.50, 3 yellow → $2. +Hardback books = yellow, DVDs = blue, kids clothes = green, small appliances = red, furniture = masking-tape tag with Sharpie. + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 5 – INVENTORY & CONDITION CHECK +• Electronics: plug-in, wipe, include remote. +• Clothes: no stains, on hangers. +• Glassware: newspaper wrap, label “Set of 4 – $3”. +• Furniture: tighten screws, legs taped together. + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 6 – ADVERTISING STACK (FREE) +1. FB Marketplace listing + Title: “Multi-Family Garage Sale – Lewisville (Permit #2025-####)” + Photos: wide shot of driveway + 3 best items. + Description: “Fri-Sat 8-2, rain or shine. Cash & Venmo. No early birds.” +2. Nextdoor event +3. Craigslist “Garage-Sales” subcategory +4. Yard Sale Search & gsalr.com (upload same photos) +Post at 7 p.m. the night before for algorithm bump. + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 7 – DAY-OF KIT +□ Cash apron or fanny pack +□ Square reader / Venmo QR taped to checkout table +□ 2 power strips + extension cords +□ Blue tape, Sharpies, extra stickers +□ Folding chair & water cooler for helpers +□ Wagon or laundry basket for quick restocking +□ “ALL SALES FINAL” sign + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 8 – HAGGLE & UPSELL SCRIPT +Buyer: “Will you take $1 for this $3 item?” +You: “How about 2 for $5 on any green-tag items?” +(Converts single-item haggle into higher basket size.) + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 9 – END-OF-SALE WRAP +• 1:30 p.m. announce “Fill-a-bag $5” over megaphone app. +• 2:00 p.m. shut gates, box leftovers. +• 2:30 p.m. load car, drop at Goodwill (1515 S. State Hwy 121 Bldg B). +• 3:00 p.m. remove lawn signs, scan donation receipt for taxes. + +──────────────────────────────────────── +SECTION 10 – POST-MORTEM SHEET +Date: ___/___/___ +Gross: $____ +Hours worked: ___ +Effective hourly wage = Gross / Hours +Traffic sources (circle): FB / Nextdoor / Drive-by / Other +Top-selling category: __________ +Biggest bottleneck: __________ +Action for next sale: __________ + +Keep this one-page printout in your permit folder for instant reuse. + +--- + Garage-Sale Playbook – First-Principles Edition (Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas)