diff --git a/projects/forex_algo_trading.md b/projects/forex_algo_trading.md index 013a814..f2ceb22 100644 --- a/projects/forex_algo_trading.md +++ b/projects/forex_algo_trading.md @@ -1,3 +1,74 @@ +## 1. Understanding the Tools + +### 1.1 Scikit-learn + +* **Overview:** A versatile Python library offering a suite of machine learning algorithms for tasks like classification, regression, clustering, and dimensionality reduction. +* **Benefits:** + * User-friendly API and extensive documentation. + * Wide range of algorithms for diverse needs. + * Supports feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation. +* **Limitations:** + * Not specifically designed for finance. + * Requires careful data preparation and interpretation. + +### 1.2 Backtrader + +* **Overview:** An open-source Python library built for backtesting trading strategies on historical data. +* **Benefits:** + * Simulates trading based on user-defined strategies. + * Analyzes performance metrics like profit, loss, Sharpe ratio, and drawdown. + * Provides tools for order execution, position management, and visualization. +* **Limitations:** + * Focuses on backtesting, not live trading. + * Past performance not indicative of future results. + +## 2. Synergistic Workflow + +* **Step 1: Data Preparation and Feature Engineering (Scikit-learn)** + * Gather historical financial data (e.g., prices, volumes, indicators). + * Clean and preprocess data (e.g., handle missing values, outliers). + * Extract meaningful features using techniques like: + * **Technical indicators:** Moving averages, RSI, MACD. + * **Lagged features:** Past price movements for momentum analysis. + * **Volatility features:** ATR, Bollinger Bands. + * **Market sentiment:** News analysis, social media data. + * Utilize feature selection methods like PCA or LASSO. + +* **Step 2: Model Building and Training (Scikit-learn)** + * Choose appropriate algorithms based on the target variable (e.g., price prediction, trend classification). + * Experiment with models like: + * **Regression:** Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression. + * **Classification:** Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Neural Networks (with caution). + * Train models on the prepared data, considering hyperparameter tuning. + * Evaluate model performance using metrics like accuracy, precision, and recall. + +* **Step 3: Strategy Implementation and Backtesting (Backtrader)** + * Translate model predictions into trading signals (e.g., buy/sell thresholds). + * Implement your strategy in Backtrader using a Python class. + * Define entry, exit, and position management rules. + * Account for: + * **Risk management:** Stop-loss, take-profit orders. + * **Transaction costs:** Commissions, slippage. + * Backtest the strategy on historical data, analyzing: + * **Performance metrics:** Profit, loss, Sharpe ratio, drawdown. + * **Robustness:** Walk-forward testing for unseen data. + +* **Step 4: Continuous Improvement and Feedback Loop** + * Analyze backtesting results and identify areas for improvement. + * Refine feature engineering, model selection, hyperparameters. + * Update models with new data and re-evaluate performance. + * Adapt the strategy as market dynamics change. + +## 3. Additional Considerations + +* **Responsible Trading:** Backtesting is not a guarantee of success in real markets. Practice responsible risk management and seek professional advice before making trading decisions. +* **Data Quality:** The quality of your historical data significantly impacts model performance. Ensure proper cleaning and preprocessing. +* **Model Overfitting:** Avoid overfitting models to training data. Use techniques like cross-validation and regularization. +* **Market Complexity:** Financial markets are complex and dynamic. Models may not always capture all relevant factors. +* **Further Exploration:** This guide provides a starting point. Each step involves deeper exploration and best practices specific to your goals. + +--- + # Swing Trading Project with EUR/USD Using Oanda and scikit-learn ## Step 1: Environment Setup