UNIVERSAL PRICING AXIOMS (for any object, any market, any seller) 1. A price is only a **probability-weighted prediction** of what someone will pay *right now*. → Never attach emotion; attach data. 2. Every transaction has **three hidden currencies**: a. Money b. Time c. Risk A lower price **must** reduce at least one of the buyer’s time or risk costs, or it is not a bargain. 3. **Intrinsic value = Utility ÷ Scarcity ÷ Effort to replace.** Price can never sustainably exceed intrinsic value; it can only temporarily exploit information asymmetry. 4. **Market layer rule** Layer 1: Global auction (eBay, StockX) → highest reach, lowest friction, maximum price discovery. Layer 2: Local classified (FB, Craigslist) → moderate reach, moderate friction. Layer 3: Physical yard sale / flea market → lowest reach, highest friction, therefore **price floor**. Price descends as you descend layers; move the item upward if the layer’s ceiling is above your Fair Price. 5. **Elasticity test** If 10 % price cut doubles inquiries, demand is elastic → cut more. If 10 % cut does nothing, demand is inelastic → hold or raise. 6. **Anchoring corollary** The first number a buyer sees becomes the anchor. Therefore the *displayed* anchor should be 110–120 % of Fair Price when negotiation is expected; 100 % when it is not. 7. **Friction tax** Every extra step (no photo, must pick up today, cash only, no measurements) is a hidden 5–15 % price reduction. Remove friction before cutting price. 8. **Sunk-cost immorality** Money already spent is irrelevant to the buyer; only **future utility** matters. Ask: “What will this object do for the next owner tomorrow?” not “What did it cost me yesterday?” 9. **End-of-life coefficient** If the next logical step for the item is landfill, the Fair Price approaches zero rapidly, regardless of original cost. 10. **Decision shortcut** If you would not re-buy the item at the price you’re asking, the price is wrong. Burn these ten lines into memory; every pricing decision reduces to a 30-second mental checklist. --- PRICING FIRST-PRINCIPLES GUIDE (Use anywhere, any time, for any item) 1. ONE EQUATION Fair Price = (Replacement Cost) × (Condition Factor) × (Utility Factor) × (Liquidity Factor) 2. DEFINE EACH FACTOR • Replacement Cost (RC) – Cheapest *online delivered* price for identical or equivalent. • Condition Factor (CF) – 1.0 = new, 0.8 = gently used, 0.5 = worn/working, 0.2 = parts only. • Utility Factor (UF) – 1.0 = everyday item, 0.7–0.9 = niche or outdated, 0.3–0.5 = obsolete tech. • Liquidity Factor (LF) – 1.0 = sells in minutes, 0.8 = hours, 0.5 = days, 0.2–0.3 = weeks. 3. QUICK REFERENCE TABLE RC $100 → FP = 100 × CF × UF × LF Example chain: • New-in-box blender (CF 1.0, UF 1.0, LF 0.8) → $80 ask. • Same blender, scuffed (CF 0.6), last-year model (UF 0.9), garage-sale traffic (LF 0.3) → $100×0.6×0.9×0.3 ≈ **$16**. 4. PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUNDING RULE Always round down to the nearest “standard denomination minus 1 cent” ($0.25, $0.50, $0.75, $1, $3, $5, $10). Rationale: velocity beats margin at a garage sale. 5. BUNDLE MULTIPLIER Stack of 4 identical items → apply 0.7× to each; display as “4 for $X” where X = 4 × (unit FP × 0.7). Moves volume without extra buyers. 6. NEGOTIATION BUFFER Add 15 % to Fair Price if you *expect* to haggle. If you hate haggling, list at Fair Price and label “firm”. 7. DROP CLOCK After first 2 hours with zero offers, cut price 25 % or move to bundle box. After 4 hours, cut another 25 % or donate. 8. EXCEPTIONS • Sentimental items – price 2× Fair Price; be willing to keep. • Collectibles – use eBay *sold* listings for RC, ignore LF; move to online sale if >$50. • Free box – anything with FP < $0.50; gains traffic and goodwill. Memorize the equation and table; you can price an entire table in under ten minutes without any lists. --- Lewisville Garage-Sale Master Doc (Everything you need, nothing you don’t) ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 1 – PERMIT & LEGAL (NON-NEGOTIABLE) 1. Create MGO Connect account • URL: https://lewisville.municity.us (choose “Garage-Sale Permit” tile) • Info needed: name, address, requested dates, email, phone. 2. Submit no later than **Friday 10 a.m.** for a weekend sale. 3. Print permit PDF; tape in front window or storm-door glass. 4. Rules reminder • Max 2 sales per rolling 12 mo. • Only on your property; no street, sidewalk, or parkway blocking. • Temporary signs allowed **only on your lawn**; remove by 8 p.m. sale day. ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 2 – PRE-SALE TIMELINE (BACKWARD PLAN) T-14 Days – Pick weekend, check weather, apply permit. T-12 Days – Inventory sweep: every room, attic, shed. T-10 Days – Pre-price & sort (see pricing table). T-7 Days – Reserve folding tables, borrow garment rack. T-5 Days – Take photos for online listings (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor, Craigslist). T-3 Days – Make change run: $100 in $1s, $5s, quarters. T-1 Day – Post directional signs on your lawn only; final lawn mow, extension cords ready. ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 3 – SPACE LAYOUT (DRIVEWAY MAP) [Street] ┌────────────────────────────┐ │ SIGN 1 │ SIGN 2 │ │ “Yard Sale →” │ ├───────────┬────────────────┤ │ CHECKOUT │ ELECTRONICS │ │ (folding │ (power strip) │ │ table) │ │ ├───────────┼────────────────┤ │ $1-$2 │ CLOTHES │ │ TABLES │ (garment rack)│ ├───────────┴────────────────┤ │ FREE BOX at curb edge │ └────────────────────────────┘ Keep a 3-ft wide path; fire-code egress. ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 4 – PRICING CHEAT-SHEET (STICKER COLORS) Blue = $0.25 Yellow = $1 Green = $3 Red = $5 Bundle deals: 3 blue → $0.50, 3 yellow → $2. Hardback books = yellow, DVDs = blue, kids clothes = green, small appliances = red, furniture = masking-tape tag with Sharpie. ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 5 – INVENTORY & CONDITION CHECK • Electronics: plug-in, wipe, include remote. • Clothes: no stains, on hangers. • Glassware: newspaper wrap, label “Set of 4 – $3”. • Furniture: tighten screws, legs taped together. ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 6 – ADVERTISING STACK (FREE) 1. FB Marketplace listing Title: “Multi-Family Garage Sale – Lewisville (Permit #2025-####)” Photos: wide shot of driveway + 3 best items. Description: “Fri-Sat 8-2, rain or shine. Cash & Venmo. No early birds.” 2. Nextdoor event 3. Craigslist “Garage-Sales” subcategory 4. Yard Sale Search & gsalr.com (upload same photos) Post at 7 p.m. the night before for algorithm bump. ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 7 – DAY-OF KIT □ Cash apron or fanny pack □ Square reader / Venmo QR taped to checkout table □ 2 power strips + extension cords □ Blue tape, Sharpies, extra stickers □ Folding chair & water cooler for helpers □ Wagon or laundry basket for quick restocking □ “ALL SALES FINAL” sign ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 8 – HAGGLE & UPSELL SCRIPT Buyer: “Will you take $1 for this $3 item?” You: “How about 2 for $5 on any green-tag items?” (Converts single-item haggle into higher basket size.) ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 9 – END-OF-SALE WRAP • 1:30 p.m. announce “Fill-a-bag $5” over megaphone app. • 2:00 p.m. shut gates, box leftovers. • 2:30 p.m. load car, drop at Goodwill (1515 S. State Hwy 121 Bldg B). • 3:00 p.m. remove lawn signs, scan donation receipt for taxes. ──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 10 – POST-MORTEM SHEET Date: ___/___/___ Gross: $____ Hours worked: ___ Effective hourly wage = Gross / Hours Traffic sources (circle): FB / Nextdoor / Drive-by / Other Top-selling category: __________ Biggest bottleneck: __________ Action for next sale: __________ Keep this one-page printout in your permit folder for instant reuse. --- Garage-Sale Playbook – First-Principles Edition (Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas) 1. Objective Maximize net profit (sale receipts – all costs – opportunity cost) while staying within legal and social constraints. 2. Universal Constraints A. Legal: city ordinances, permit limits, property-line rules, signage rules. B. Social: neighbor tolerance, safety, customer trust. C. Physical: driveway size, daylight hours, weather. 3. Core Levers (first principles) · Traffic Volume (# of qualified buyers who see your goods) · Conversion Rate (% of viewers who purchase) · Average Transaction Value ($ per buyer) · Operational Cost (time, money, risk) 4. Mapping Lewisville Rules to Levers Rule → Lever Effect - Free two-per-year permit → caps Traffic Volume (max 2 events) - Must be on private property → constrains Traffic Volume (no street spill-over) - Online permit by Friday 10 a.m. → adds Operational Cost (deadline risk) - Signage only on your lawn → caps Traffic Volume; mitigate with digital ads 5. Optimal Tactics (derived from levers) Traffic: • Schedule on high-footfall weekends (weather app + local events calendar). • Post to zero-cost digital channels (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor) the moment permit is approved. Conversion: • Price anchoring: big bold “$1 table” draws eyeballs → higher walk-up rate. • Power strip on site → buyers test electronics instantly → removes friction. Transaction Size: • Bundle pricing (“3 books for $5”) pushes unit economics up without extra traffic. Operational Cost: • Use existing tables/chairs, borrow folding racks → cash layout near zero. • End-of-day donation run to Goodwill → converts unsold inventory into tax deduction instead of storage cost. 6. Day-of Execution Checklist (minimum viable) 07:30 Permit printed & taped to front window (legal compliance). 08:00 Two signs max on lawn facing both traffic flows (traffic). 08:15 Cash apron on + $100 in small bills (operational). 08:30 QR code taped to table linking to digital price list (conversion). 14:00 “Half-price last hour” call-out (transaction size). 14:30 Signs in, lawn swept, leftovers in car for donation (social constraint satisfied). 7. Post-Mortem Template Net profit = Gross – (permit $0 + ad spend $0 + time 8 h × self-wage $15) – unsold write-off $0 (donated). If profit ≥ target, replicate. If not, adjust Traffic (better ad copy), Conversion (pricing), or Transaction Size (more bundles). Document once, reuse forever.