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Garage-Sale Playbook First-Principles Edition
(Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas)
1. Objective
Maximize net profit (sale receipts all costs opportunity cost) while staying within legal and social constraints.
2. Universal Constraints
A. Legal: city ordinances, permit limits, property-line rules, signage rules.
B. Social: neighbor tolerance, safety, customer trust.
C. Physical: driveway size, daylight hours, weather.
3. Core Levers (first principles)
· Traffic Volume (# of qualified buyers who see your goods)
· Conversion Rate (% of viewers who purchase)
· Average Transaction Value ($ per buyer)
· Operational Cost (time, money, risk)
4. Mapping Lewisville Rules to Levers
Rule → Lever Effect
- Free two-per-year permit → caps Traffic Volume (max 2 events)
- Must be on private property → constrains Traffic Volume (no street spill-over)
- Online permit by Friday 10 a.m. → adds Operational Cost (deadline risk)
- Signage only on your lawn → caps Traffic Volume; mitigate with digital ads
5. Optimal Tactics (derived from levers)
Traffic:
• Schedule on high-footfall weekends (weather app + local events calendar).
• Post to zero-cost digital channels (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor) the moment permit is approved.
Conversion:
• Price anchoring: big bold “$1 table” draws eyeballs → higher walk-up rate.
• Power strip on site → buyers test electronics instantly → removes friction.
Transaction Size:
• Bundle pricing (“3 books for $5”) pushes unit economics up without extra traffic.
Operational Cost:
• Use existing tables/chairs, borrow folding racks → cash layout near zero.
• End-of-day donation run to Goodwill → converts unsold inventory into tax deduction instead of storage cost.
6. Day-of Execution Checklist (minimum viable)
07:30 Permit printed & taped to front window (legal compliance).
08:00 Two signs max on lawn facing both traffic flows (traffic).
08:15 Cash apron on + $100 in small bills (operational).
08:30 QR code taped to table linking to digital price list (conversion).
14:00 “Half-price last hour” call-out (transaction size).
14:30 Signs in, lawn swept, leftovers in car for donation (social constraint satisfied).
7. Post-Mortem Template
Net profit = Gross (permit $0 + ad spend $0 + time 8 h × self-wage $15) unsold write-off $0 (donated).
If profit ≥ target, replicate. If not, adjust Traffic (better ad copy), Conversion (pricing), or Transaction Size (more bundles).
Document once, reuse forever.