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Garage-Sale Playbook – First-Principles Edition
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(Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas)
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1. Objective
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Maximize net profit (sale receipts – all costs – opportunity cost) while staying within legal and social constraints.
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2. Universal Constraints
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A. Legal: city ordinances, permit limits, property-line rules, signage rules.
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B. Social: neighbor tolerance, safety, customer trust.
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C. Physical: driveway size, daylight hours, weather.
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3. Core Levers (first principles)
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· Traffic Volume (# of qualified buyers who see your goods)
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· Conversion Rate (% of viewers who purchase)
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· Average Transaction Value ($ per buyer)
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· Operational Cost (time, money, risk)
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4. Mapping Lewisville Rules to Levers
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Rule → Lever Effect
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- Free two-per-year permit → caps Traffic Volume (max 2 events)
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- Must be on private property → constrains Traffic Volume (no street spill-over)
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- Online permit by Friday 10 a.m. → adds Operational Cost (deadline risk)
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- Signage only on your lawn → caps Traffic Volume; mitigate with digital ads
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5. Optimal Tactics (derived from levers)
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Traffic:
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• Schedule on high-footfall weekends (weather app + local events calendar).
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• Post to zero-cost digital channels (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor) the moment permit is approved.
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Conversion:
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• Price anchoring: big bold “$1 table” draws eyeballs → higher walk-up rate.
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• Power strip on site → buyers test electronics instantly → removes friction.
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Transaction Size:
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• Bundle pricing (“3 books for $5”) pushes unit economics up without extra traffic.
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Operational Cost:
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• Use existing tables/chairs, borrow folding racks → cash layout near zero.
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• End-of-day donation run to Goodwill → converts unsold inventory into tax deduction instead of storage cost.
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6. Day-of Execution Checklist (minimum viable)
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07:30 Permit printed & taped to front window (legal compliance).
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08:00 Two signs max on lawn facing both traffic flows (traffic).
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08:15 Cash apron on + $100 in small bills (operational).
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08:30 QR code taped to table linking to digital price list (conversion).
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14:00 “Half-price last hour” call-out (transaction size).
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14:30 Signs in, lawn swept, leftovers in car for donation (social constraint satisfied).
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7. Post-Mortem Template
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Net profit = Gross – (permit $0 + ad spend $0 + time 8 h × self-wage $15) – unsold write-off $0 (donated).
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If profit ≥ target, replicate. If not, adjust Traffic (better ad copy), Conversion (pricing), or Transaction Size (more bundles).
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Document once, reuse forever.
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