the_information_nexus/random/Garage-Sale.md

UNIVERSAL PRICING AXIOMS
(for any object, any market, any seller)

1. A price is only a probability-weighted prediction of what someone will pay right now.
   → Never attach emotion; attach data.

2. Every transaction has three hidden currencies:
   a. Money
   b. Time
   c. Risk
   A lower price must reduce at least one of the buyer’s time or risk costs, or it is not a bargain.

3. Intrinsic value = Utility ÷ Scarcity ÷ Effort to replace.
   Price can never sustainably exceed intrinsic value; it can only temporarily exploit information asymmetry.

4. Market layer rule
   Layer 1: Global auction (eBay, StockX) → highest reach, lowest friction, maximum price discovery.
   Layer 2: Local classified (FB, Craigslist) → moderate reach, moderate friction.
   Layer 3: Physical yard sale / flea market → lowest reach, highest friction, therefore price floor.
   Price descends as you descend layers; move the item upward if the layer’s ceiling is above your Fair Price.

5. Elasticity test
   If 10 % price cut doubles inquiries, demand is elastic → cut more.
   If 10 % cut does nothing, demand is inelastic → hold or raise.

6. Anchoring corollary
   The first number a buyer sees becomes the anchor.
   Therefore the displayed anchor should be 110–120 % of Fair Price when negotiation is expected; 100 % when it is not.

7. Friction tax
   Every extra step (no photo, must pick up today, cash only, no measurements) is a hidden 5–15 % price reduction.
   Remove friction before cutting price.

8. Sunk-cost immorality
   Money already spent is irrelevant to the buyer; only future utility matters.
   Ask: “What will this object do for the next owner tomorrow?” not “What did it cost me yesterday?”

9. End-of-life coefficient
   If the next logical step for the item is landfill, the Fair Price approaches zero rapidly, regardless of original cost.

10. Decision shortcut
    If you would not re-buy the item at the price you’re asking, the price is wrong.

Burn these ten lines into memory; every pricing decision reduces to a 30-second mental checklist.

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PRICING FIRST-PRINCIPLES GUIDE
(Use anywhere, any time, for any item)

1. ONE EQUATION
   Fair Price = (Replacement Cost) × (Condition Factor) × (Utility Factor) × (Liquidity Factor)

2. DEFINE EACH FACTOR
   • Replacement Cost (RC) – Cheapest online delivered price for identical or equivalent.
   • Condition Factor (CF) – 1.0 = new, 0.8 = gently used, 0.5 = worn/working, 0.2 = parts only.
   • Utility Factor (UF) – 1.0 = everyday item, 0.7–0.9 = niche or outdated, 0.3–0.5 = obsolete tech.
   • Liquidity Factor (LF) – 1.0 = sells in minutes, 0.8 = hours, 0.5 = days, 0.2–0.3 = weeks.

3. QUICK REFERENCE TABLE
   RC $100 → FP = 100 × CF × UF × LF
   Example chain:
   • New-in-box blender (CF 1.0, UF 1.0, LF 0.8) → $80 ask.
   • Same blender, scuffed (CF 0.6), last-year model (UF 0.9), garage-sale traffic (LF 0.3) → $100×0.6×0.9×0.3 ≈ $16.

4. PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUNDING RULE
   Always round down to the nearest “standard denomination minus 1 cent” ($0.25, $0.50, $0.75, $1, $3, $5, $10).
   Rationale: velocity beats margin at a garage sale.

5. BUNDLE MULTIPLIER
   Stack of 4 identical items → apply 0.7× to each; display as “4 for $X” where X = 4 × (unit FP × 0.7).
   Moves volume without extra buyers.

6. NEGOTIATION BUFFER
   Add 15 % to Fair Price if you expect to haggle.
   If you hate haggling, list at Fair Price and label “firm”.

7. DROP CLOCK
   After first 2 hours with zero offers, cut price 25 % or move to bundle box.
   After 4 hours, cut another 25 % or donate.

8. EXCEPTIONS
   • Sentimental items – price 2× Fair Price; be willing to keep.
   • Collectibles – use eBay sold listings for RC, ignore LF; move to online sale if >$50.
   • Free box – anything with FP < $0.50; gains traffic and goodwill.

Memorize the equation and table; you can price an entire table in under ten minutes without any lists.

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Lewisville Garage-Sale Master Doc
(Everything you need, nothing you don’t)

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 1 – PERMIT & LEGAL (NON-NEGOTIABLE)

1. Create MGO Connect account
   • URL: https://lewisville.municity.us (choose “Garage-Sale Permit” tile)
   • Info needed: name, address, requested dates, email, phone.
2. Submit no later than Friday 10 a.m. for a weekend sale.
3. Print permit PDF; tape in front window or storm-door glass.
4. Rules reminder
   • Max 2 sales per rolling 12 mo.
   • Only on your property; no street, sidewalk, or parkway blocking.
   • Temporary signs allowed only on your lawn; remove by 8 p.m. sale day.

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 2 – PRE-SALE TIMELINE (BACKWARD PLAN) T-14 Days – Pick weekend, check weather, apply permit.
T-12 Days – Inventory sweep: every room, attic, shed.
T-10 Days – Pre-price & sort (see pricing table).
T-7 Days – Reserve folding tables, borrow garment rack.
T-5 Days – Take photos for online listings (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor, Craigslist).
T-3 Days – Make change run: $100 in $1s, $5s, quarters.
T-1 Day – Post directional signs on your lawn only; final lawn mow, extension cords ready.

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 3 – SPACE LAYOUT (DRIVEWAY MAP) [Street]
┌────────────────────────────┐
│ SIGN 1 │ SIGN 2 │
│ “Yard Sale →” │
├───────────┬────────────────┤
│ CHECKOUT │ ELECTRONICS │
│ (folding │ (power strip) │
│ table) │ │
├───────────┼────────────────┤
│ $1-$2 │ CLOTHES │
│ TABLES │ (garment rack)│
├───────────┴────────────────┤
│ FREE BOX at curb edge │
└────────────────────────────┘
Keep a 3-ft wide path; fire-code egress.

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 4 – PRICING CHEAT-SHEET (STICKER COLORS) Blue = $0.25 Yellow = $1 Green = $3 Red = $5
Bundle deals: 3 blue → $0.50, 3 yellow → $2.
Hardback books = yellow, DVDs = blue, kids clothes = green, small appliances = red, furniture = masking-tape tag with Sharpie.

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 5 – INVENTORY & CONDITION CHECK • Electronics: plug-in, wipe, include remote.
• Clothes: no stains, on hangers.
• Glassware: newspaper wrap, label “Set of 4 – $3”.
• Furniture: tighten screws, legs taped together.

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 6 – ADVERTISING STACK (FREE)

1. FB Marketplace listing
   Title: “Multi-Family Garage Sale – Lewisville (Permit #2025-####)”
   Photos: wide shot of driveway + 3 best items.
   Description: “Fri-Sat 8-2, rain or shine. Cash & Venmo. No early birds.”
2. Nextdoor event
3. Craigslist “Garage-Sales” subcategory
4. Yard Sale Search & gsalr.com (upload same photos)
   Post at 7 p.m. the night before for algorithm bump.

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 7 – DAY-OF KIT □ Cash apron or fanny pack
□ Square reader / Venmo QR taped to checkout table
□ 2 power strips + extension cords
□ Blue tape, Sharpies, extra stickers
□ Folding chair & water cooler for helpers
□ Wagon or laundry basket for quick restocking
□ “ALL SALES FINAL” sign

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 8 – HAGGLE & UPSELL SCRIPT Buyer: “Will you take $1 for this $3 item?”
You: “How about 2 for $5 on any green-tag items?”
(Converts single-item haggle into higher basket size.)

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 9 – END-OF-SALE WRAP • 1:30 p.m. announce “Fill-a-bag $5” over megaphone app.
• 2:00 p.m. shut gates, box leftovers.
• 2:30 p.m. load car, drop at Goodwill (1515 S. State Hwy 121 Bldg B).
• 3:00 p.m. remove lawn signs, scan donation receipt for taxes.

──────────────────────────────────────── SECTION 10 – POST-MORTEM SHEET Date: //___
Gross: $____
Hours worked: ___
Effective hourly wage = Gross / Hours
Traffic sources (circle): FB / Nextdoor / Drive-by / Other
Top-selling category: __________
Biggest bottleneck: __________
Action for next sale: __________

Keep this one-page printout in your permit folder for instant reuse.

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Garage-Sale Playbook – First-Principles Edition
(Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas)

1. Objective
   Maximize net profit (sale receipts – all costs – opportunity cost) while staying within legal and social constraints.

2. Universal Constraints
   A. Legal: city ordinances, permit limits, property-line rules, signage rules.
   B. Social: neighbor tolerance, safety, customer trust.
   C. Physical: driveway size, daylight hours, weather.

3. Core Levers (first principles)
   · Traffic Volume (# of qualified buyers who see your goods)
   · Conversion Rate (% of viewers who purchase)
   · Average Transaction Value ($ per buyer)
   · Operational Cost (time, money, risk)

4. Mapping Lewisville Rules to Levers
   Rule → Lever Effect

   • Free two-per-year permit → caps Traffic Volume (max 2 events)
   • Must be on private property → constrains Traffic Volume (no street spill-over)
   • Online permit by Friday 10 a.m. → adds Operational Cost (deadline risk)
   • Signage only on your lawn → caps Traffic Volume; mitigate with digital ads

5. Optimal Tactics (derived from levers)
   Traffic:
   • Schedule on high-footfall weekends (weather app + local events calendar).
   • Post to zero-cost digital channels (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor) the moment permit is approved.
   Conversion:
   • Price anchoring: big bold “$1 table” draws eyeballs → higher walk-up rate.
   • Power strip on site → buyers test electronics instantly → removes friction.
   Transaction Size:
   • Bundle pricing (“3 books for $5”) pushes unit economics up without extra traffic.
   Operational Cost:
   • Use existing tables/chairs, borrow folding racks → cash layout near zero.
   • End-of-day donation run to Goodwill → converts unsold inventory into tax deduction instead of storage cost.

6. Day-of Execution Checklist (minimum viable)
   07:30 Permit printed & taped to front window (legal compliance).
   08:00 Two signs max on lawn facing both traffic flows (traffic).
   08:15 Cash apron on + $100 in small bills (operational).
   08:30 QR code taped to table linking to digital price list (conversion).
   14:00 “Half-price last hour” call-out (transaction size).
   14:30 Signs in, lawn swept, leftovers in car for donation (social constraint satisfied).

7. Post-Mortem Template
   Net profit = Gross – (permit $0 + ad spend $0 + time 8 h × self-wage $15) – unsold write-off $0 (donated).
   If profit ≥ target, replicate. If not, adjust Traffic (better ad copy), Conversion (pricing), or Transaction Size (more bundles).

Document once, reuse forever.