107 lines
4.8 KiB
Markdown
107 lines
4.8 KiB
Markdown
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THE TIMELINE TO COLLAPSE 2.0
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From Path-Dependency to Path-Exit
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0. 30-Second Abstract
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Collapse is not a future event; it is the **late stage of a system that has already failed**.
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The same architecture—reserve-currency over-issue, state-corporate fusion, and statistical illusion—has detonated **three times** in the last century (1914, 1971, 2008).
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This document maps the **design defect**, traces its four detours, and then sketches the **only viable fork left**: a **mesh of local, open-source, low-entropy cells** that route around the collapsing core.
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1. 1945-1971 • The Managed Interlude
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1.1 Bretton Woods: A 26-Year Pause
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• IMF archives show European recovery was **financed by U.S. deficits**, not trade surpluses.
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• CEPR: by 1970 foreign dollar claims exceeded U.S. gold by 4.5:1.
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1.2 The Nixon Shock (1971)
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• Not betrayal—**scheduled expiry**.
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▶︎ Historical rhyme: Rome’s denarius (3rd c.), French assignat (1790s), Weimar (1923).
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Outcome
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Global liquidity now floats on pure fiat. **Asset inflation 14× wages (1971-2021)**.
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2. 1980-2008 • Financialization as War-by-Other-Means
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2.1 Corporate-State Fusion (Precedent: WWII “dollar-a-year” execs).
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2.2 Reagan/Thatcher
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• SEC Rule 10b-18 (1982) → **$7 T** diverted to buybacks.
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• Big Bang (1986) → London tax-haven; manufacturing dies.
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2.3 Clinton
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• NAFTA → U.S. manufacturing jobs **-29 %** (1994-2004).
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• Glass-Steagall repealed after **$300 M** Citigroup lobbying.
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2.4 2008
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• Lehman’s Repo 105: **auditor-certified fraud**.
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• Fed bails Wall St.; **top 1 % capture 95 %** of post-crash gains (Saez & Zucman 2012 window).
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3. 2010-2023 • Surveillance Capitalism
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3.1 Tech-Monopoly as State Subsidy
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• Project Maven (2017) & CIA cloud ($600 M) → **FAAMG > Italy GDP**.
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3.2 COVID Stress Test
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• IMF meta-study: **no clear mortality benefit** from lockdowns.
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• Yet **$4 T** flowed to billionaires; CBDC pilots accelerated.
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3.3 WEF “Great Reset”
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• ESG as **soft-law corporate governance**.
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• Social-credit beta: China → EU Digital ID.
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4. 2024-2030 • Controlled Demolition
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4.1 Fake Populism
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• Trump tax cuts: **+$2 T deficit**; Le Pen votes 70 % with EU corporates.
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4.2 Reset Triggers
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• Central-bank gold hoard at **50-year high** (WGC).
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• U.S. debt-to-GDP **129 %** = pre-default Argentina (1998).
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4.3 Neo-Feudal Outcome
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• AI job risk: **47 %** (Oxford 2013).
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• Climate lockdown pilots: Oxford “15-minute city” fines.
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5. Systems Diagnosis
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Defect = **Entropy Export**
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The architecture survives by pushing disorder outward:
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• ecological (soil, carbon)
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• social (wage erosion, mental health)
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• geopolitical (currency wars, proxy conflicts)
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6. Path-Exit: The Mesh Imperative
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6.1 Principle
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Collapse cannot be **reformed** from within; it must be **routed around**.
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6.2 Core Requirements
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A. **Low-entropy cells**
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• Local food, energy, and credit loops with **energy return on investment (EROI) > 5**.
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B. **Open-source protocols**
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• Transparent ledgers (e.g., Fedimint, Bisq, Urbit) to prevent new capture.
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C. **Mutual-credit rails**
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• LETS, Local CICs, **Time Banks**—units that cannot be securitized.
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6.3 Tactics
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• **Parallel bookkeeping** (triple-entry ledgers) to starve CBDC data-hunger.
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• **Mesh ISPs** + **community solar** = dual-stack resilience.
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• **Skill guilds** (repair, agro-ecology, encryption) to replace wage labor.
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6.4 Governance
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• **Liquid-democracy** modules forked from open-source DAOs.
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• **Conflict-resolution** via rotating juries (Athens 4th c. BCE model).
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7. Why Most Will Miss the Exit
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• **Divide & Conquer** (owner vs. renter).
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• **Bread & Circuses** (TikTok dopamine loops).
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• **Education collapse** (literacy < 8th-grade median).
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──────────────────
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8. Epilogue
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The same architecture that produced collapse also produces the **instruction manual for its by-pass**.
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History does not repeat—but **it forks**.
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This is the last one that matters.
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──────────────────
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▶︎ SOURCES
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BIS Working Papers 2023-18; IMF Archives; CEPR Discussion 18042; Romer & Romer 2022; Monthly Review 2024-01; World Gold Council CB Survey 2024; Oxford Frey 2023 update. |