245 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
245 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
UNIVERSAL PRICING AXIOMS
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(for any object, any market, any seller)
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1. A price is only a **probability-weighted prediction** of what someone will pay *right now*.
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→ Never attach emotion; attach data.
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2. Every transaction has **three hidden currencies**:
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a. Money
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b. Time
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c. Risk
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A lower price **must** reduce at least one of the buyer’s time or risk costs, or it is not a bargain.
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3. **Intrinsic value = Utility ÷ Scarcity ÷ Effort to replace.**
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Price can never sustainably exceed intrinsic value; it can only temporarily exploit information asymmetry.
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4. **Market layer rule**
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Layer 1: Global auction (eBay, StockX) → highest reach, lowest friction, maximum price discovery.
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Layer 2: Local classified (FB, Craigslist) → moderate reach, moderate friction.
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Layer 3: Physical yard sale / flea market → lowest reach, highest friction, therefore **price floor**.
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Price descends as you descend layers; move the item upward if the layer’s ceiling is above your Fair Price.
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5. **Elasticity test**
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If 10 % price cut doubles inquiries, demand is elastic → cut more.
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If 10 % cut does nothing, demand is inelastic → hold or raise.
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6. **Anchoring corollary**
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The first number a buyer sees becomes the anchor.
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Therefore the *displayed* anchor should be 110–120 % of Fair Price when negotiation is expected; 100 % when it is not.
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7. **Friction tax**
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Every extra step (no photo, must pick up today, cash only, no measurements) is a hidden 5–15 % price reduction.
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Remove friction before cutting price.
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8. **Sunk-cost immorality**
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Money already spent is irrelevant to the buyer; only **future utility** matters.
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Ask: “What will this object do for the next owner tomorrow?” not “What did it cost me yesterday?”
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9. **End-of-life coefficient**
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If the next logical step for the item is landfill, the Fair Price approaches zero rapidly, regardless of original cost.
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10. **Decision shortcut**
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If you would not re-buy the item at the price you’re asking, the price is wrong.
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Burn these ten lines into memory; every pricing decision reduces to a 30-second mental checklist.
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---
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PRICING FIRST-PRINCIPLES GUIDE
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(Use anywhere, any time, for any item)
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1. ONE EQUATION
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Fair Price = (Replacement Cost) × (Condition Factor) × (Utility Factor) × (Liquidity Factor)
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2. DEFINE EACH FACTOR
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• Replacement Cost (RC) – Cheapest *online delivered* price for identical or equivalent.
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• Condition Factor (CF) – 1.0 = new, 0.8 = gently used, 0.5 = worn/working, 0.2 = parts only.
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• Utility Factor (UF) – 1.0 = everyday item, 0.7–0.9 = niche or outdated, 0.3–0.5 = obsolete tech.
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• Liquidity Factor (LF) – 1.0 = sells in minutes, 0.8 = hours, 0.5 = days, 0.2–0.3 = weeks.
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3. QUICK REFERENCE TABLE
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RC $100 → FP = 100 × CF × UF × LF
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Example chain:
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• New-in-box blender (CF 1.0, UF 1.0, LF 0.8) → $80 ask.
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• Same blender, scuffed (CF 0.6), last-year model (UF 0.9), garage-sale traffic (LF 0.3) → $100×0.6×0.9×0.3 ≈ **$16**.
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4. PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUNDING RULE
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Always round down to the nearest “standard denomination minus 1 cent” ($0.25, $0.50, $0.75, $1, $3, $5, $10).
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Rationale: velocity beats margin at a garage sale.
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5. BUNDLE MULTIPLIER
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Stack of 4 identical items → apply 0.7× to each; display as “4 for $X” where X = 4 × (unit FP × 0.7).
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Moves volume without extra buyers.
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6. NEGOTIATION BUFFER
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Add 15 % to Fair Price if you *expect* to haggle.
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If you hate haggling, list at Fair Price and label “firm”.
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7. DROP CLOCK
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After first 2 hours with zero offers, cut price 25 % or move to bundle box.
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After 4 hours, cut another 25 % or donate.
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8. EXCEPTIONS
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• Sentimental items – price 2× Fair Price; be willing to keep.
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• Collectibles – use eBay *sold* listings for RC, ignore LF; move to online sale if >$50.
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• Free box – anything with FP < $0.50; gains traffic and goodwill.
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Memorize the equation and table; you can price an entire table in under ten minutes without any lists.
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---
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Lewisville Garage-Sale Master Doc
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(Everything you need, nothing you don’t)
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 1 – PERMIT & LEGAL (NON-NEGOTIABLE)
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1. Create MGO Connect account
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• URL: https://lewisville.municity.us (choose “Garage-Sale Permit” tile)
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• Info needed: name, address, requested dates, email, phone.
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2. Submit no later than **Friday 10 a.m.** for a weekend sale.
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3. Print permit PDF; tape in front window or storm-door glass.
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4. Rules reminder
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• Max 2 sales per rolling 12 mo.
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• Only on your property; no street, sidewalk, or parkway blocking.
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• Temporary signs allowed **only on your lawn**; remove by 8 p.m. sale day.
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 2 – PRE-SALE TIMELINE (BACKWARD PLAN)
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T-14 Days – Pick weekend, check weather, apply permit.
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T-12 Days – Inventory sweep: every room, attic, shed.
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T-10 Days – Pre-price & sort (see pricing table).
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T-7 Days – Reserve folding tables, borrow garment rack.
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T-5 Days – Take photos for online listings (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor, Craigslist).
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T-3 Days – Make change run: $100 in $1s, $5s, quarters.
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T-1 Day – Post directional signs on your lawn only; final lawn mow, extension cords ready.
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 3 – SPACE LAYOUT (DRIVEWAY MAP)
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[Street]
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┌────────────────────────────┐
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│ SIGN 1 │ SIGN 2 │
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│ “Yard Sale →” │
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├───────────┬────────────────┤
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│ CHECKOUT │ ELECTRONICS │
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│ (folding │ (power strip) │
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│ table) │ │
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├───────────┼────────────────┤
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│ $1-$2 │ CLOTHES │
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│ TABLES │ (garment rack)│
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├───────────┴────────────────┤
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│ FREE BOX at curb edge │
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└────────────────────────────┘
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Keep a 3-ft wide path; fire-code egress.
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 4 – PRICING CHEAT-SHEET (STICKER COLORS)
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Blue = $0.25 Yellow = $1 Green = $3 Red = $5
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Bundle deals: 3 blue → $0.50, 3 yellow → $2.
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Hardback books = yellow, DVDs = blue, kids clothes = green, small appliances = red, furniture = masking-tape tag with Sharpie.
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 5 – INVENTORY & CONDITION CHECK
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• Electronics: plug-in, wipe, include remote.
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• Clothes: no stains, on hangers.
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• Glassware: newspaper wrap, label “Set of 4 – $3”.
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• Furniture: tighten screws, legs taped together.
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 6 – ADVERTISING STACK (FREE)
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1. FB Marketplace listing
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Title: “Multi-Family Garage Sale – Lewisville (Permit #2025-####)”
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Photos: wide shot of driveway + 3 best items.
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Description: “Fri-Sat 8-2, rain or shine. Cash & Venmo. No early birds.”
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2. Nextdoor event
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3. Craigslist “Garage-Sales” subcategory
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4. Yard Sale Search & gsalr.com (upload same photos)
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Post at 7 p.m. the night before for algorithm bump.
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 7 – DAY-OF KIT
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□ Cash apron or fanny pack
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□ Square reader / Venmo QR taped to checkout table
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□ 2 power strips + extension cords
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□ Blue tape, Sharpies, extra stickers
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□ Folding chair & water cooler for helpers
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□ Wagon or laundry basket for quick restocking
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□ “ALL SALES FINAL” sign
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 8 – HAGGLE & UPSELL SCRIPT
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Buyer: “Will you take $1 for this $3 item?”
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You: “How about 2 for $5 on any green-tag items?”
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(Converts single-item haggle into higher basket size.)
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 9 – END-OF-SALE WRAP
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• 1:30 p.m. announce “Fill-a-bag $5” over megaphone app.
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• 2:00 p.m. shut gates, box leftovers.
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• 2:30 p.m. load car, drop at Goodwill (1515 S. State Hwy 121 Bldg B).
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• 3:00 p.m. remove lawn signs, scan donation receipt for taxes.
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────────────────────────────────────────
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SECTION 10 – POST-MORTEM SHEET
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Date: ___/___/___
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Gross: $____
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Hours worked: ___
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Effective hourly wage = Gross / Hours
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Traffic sources (circle): FB / Nextdoor / Drive-by / Other
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Top-selling category: __________
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Biggest bottleneck: __________
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Action for next sale: __________
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Keep this one-page printout in your permit folder for instant reuse.
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---
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Garage-Sale Playbook – First-Principles Edition
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(Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas)
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1. Objective
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Maximize net profit (sale receipts – all costs – opportunity cost) while staying within legal and social constraints.
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2. Universal Constraints
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A. Legal: city ordinances, permit limits, property-line rules, signage rules.
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B. Social: neighbor tolerance, safety, customer trust.
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C. Physical: driveway size, daylight hours, weather.
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3. Core Levers (first principles)
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· Traffic Volume (# of qualified buyers who see your goods)
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· Conversion Rate (% of viewers who purchase)
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· Average Transaction Value ($ per buyer)
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· Operational Cost (time, money, risk)
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4. Mapping Lewisville Rules to Levers
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Rule → Lever Effect
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- Free two-per-year permit → caps Traffic Volume (max 2 events)
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- Must be on private property → constrains Traffic Volume (no street spill-over)
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- Online permit by Friday 10 a.m. → adds Operational Cost (deadline risk)
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- Signage only on your lawn → caps Traffic Volume; mitigate with digital ads
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5. Optimal Tactics (derived from levers)
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Traffic:
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• Schedule on high-footfall weekends (weather app + local events calendar).
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• Post to zero-cost digital channels (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor) the moment permit is approved.
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Conversion:
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• Price anchoring: big bold “$1 table” draws eyeballs → higher walk-up rate.
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• Power strip on site → buyers test electronics instantly → removes friction.
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Transaction Size:
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• Bundle pricing (“3 books for $5”) pushes unit economics up without extra traffic.
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Operational Cost:
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• Use existing tables/chairs, borrow folding racks → cash layout near zero.
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• End-of-day donation run to Goodwill → converts unsold inventory into tax deduction instead of storage cost.
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6. Day-of Execution Checklist (minimum viable)
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07:30 Permit printed & taped to front window (legal compliance).
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08:00 Two signs max on lawn facing both traffic flows (traffic).
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08:15 Cash apron on + $100 in small bills (operational).
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08:30 QR code taped to table linking to digital price list (conversion).
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14:00 “Half-price last hour” call-out (transaction size).
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14:30 Signs in, lawn swept, leftovers in car for donation (social constraint satisfied).
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7. Post-Mortem Template
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Net profit = Gross – (permit $0 + ad spend $0 + time 8 h × self-wage $15) – unsold write-off $0 (donated).
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If profit ≥ target, replicate. If not, adjust Traffic (better ad copy), Conversion (pricing), or Transaction Size (more bundles).
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Document once, reuse forever. |