4.8 KiB
4.8 KiB
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THE TIMELINE TO COLLAPSE 2.0
From Path-Dependency to Path-Exit
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- 30-Second Abstract
Collapse is not a future event; it is the late stage of a system that has already failed.
The same architecture—reserve-currency over-issue, state-corporate fusion, and statistical illusion—has detonated three times in the last century (1914, 1971, 2008).
This document maps the design defect, traces its four detours, and then sketches the only viable fork left: a mesh of local, open-source, low-entropy cells that route around the collapsing core.
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- 1945-1971 • The Managed Interlude
1.1 Bretton Woods: A 26-Year Pause
• IMF archives show European recovery was financed by U.S. deficits, not trade surpluses.
• CEPR: by 1970 foreign dollar claims exceeded U.S. gold by 4.5:1.
1.2 The Nixon Shock (1971)
• Not betrayal—scheduled expiry.
▶︎ Historical rhyme: Rome’s denarius (3rd c.), French assignat (1790s), Weimar (1923).
Outcome
Global liquidity now floats on pure fiat. Asset inflation 14× wages (1971-2021).
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- 1980-2008 • Financialization as War-by-Other-Means
2.1 Corporate-State Fusion (Precedent: WWII “dollar-a-year” execs).
2.2 Reagan/Thatcher
• SEC Rule 10b-18 (1982) → $7 T diverted to buybacks.
• Big Bang (1986) → London tax-haven; manufacturing dies.
2.3 Clinton
• NAFTA → U.S. manufacturing jobs -29 % (1994-2004).
• Glass-Steagall repealed after $300 M Citigroup lobbying.
2.4 2008
• Lehman’s Repo 105: auditor-certified fraud.
• Fed bails Wall St.; top 1 % capture 95 % of post-crash gains (Saez & Zucman 2012 window).
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- 2010-2023 • Surveillance Capitalism
3.1 Tech-Monopoly as State Subsidy
• Project Maven (2017) & CIA cloud ($600 M) → FAAMG > Italy GDP.
3.2 COVID Stress Test
• IMF meta-study: no clear mortality benefit from lockdowns.
• Yet $4 T flowed to billionaires; CBDC pilots accelerated.
3.3 WEF “Great Reset”
• ESG as soft-law corporate governance.
• Social-credit beta: China → EU Digital ID.
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- 2024-2030 • Controlled Demolition
4.1 Fake Populism
• Trump tax cuts: +$2 T deficit; Le Pen votes 70 % with EU corporates.
4.2 Reset Triggers
• Central-bank gold hoard at 50-year high (WGC).
• U.S. debt-to-GDP 129 % = pre-default Argentina (1998).
4.3 Neo-Feudal Outcome
• AI job risk: 47 % (Oxford 2013).
• Climate lockdown pilots: Oxford “15-minute city” fines.
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- Systems Diagnosis
Defect = Entropy Export
The architecture survives by pushing disorder outward:
• ecological (soil, carbon)
• social (wage erosion, mental health)
• geopolitical (currency wars, proxy conflicts)
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- Path-Exit: The Mesh Imperative
6.1 Principle
Collapse cannot be reformed from within; it must be routed around.
6.2 Core Requirements
A. Low-entropy cells
• Local food, energy, and credit loops with energy return on investment (EROI) > 5.
B. Open-source protocols
• Transparent ledgers (e.g., Fedimint, Bisq, Urbit) to prevent new capture.
C. Mutual-credit rails
• LETS, Local CICs, Time Banks—units that cannot be securitized.
6.3 Tactics
• Parallel bookkeeping (triple-entry ledgers) to starve CBDC data-hunger.
• Mesh ISPs + community solar = dual-stack resilience.
• Skill guilds (repair, agro-ecology, encryption) to replace wage labor.
6.4 Governance
• Liquid-democracy modules forked from open-source DAOs.
• Conflict-resolution via rotating juries (Athens 4th c. BCE model).
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- Why Most Will Miss the Exit
• Divide & Conquer (owner vs. renter).
• Bread & Circuses (TikTok dopamine loops).
• Education collapse (literacy < 8th-grade median).
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- Epilogue
The same architecture that produced collapse also produces the instruction manual for its by-pass.
History does not repeat—but it forks.
This is the last one that matters.
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▶︎ SOURCES
BIS Working Papers 2023-18; IMF Archives; CEPR Discussion 18042; Romer & Romer 2022; Monthly Review 2024-01; World Gold Council CB Survey 2024; Oxford Frey 2023 update.