Update random/Garage-Sale.md
This commit is contained in:
@@ -1,3 +1,198 @@
|
||||
UNIVERSAL PRICING AXIOMS
|
||||
(for any object, any market, any seller)
|
||||
|
||||
1. A price is only a **probability-weighted prediction** of what someone will pay *right now*.
|
||||
→ Never attach emotion; attach data.
|
||||
|
||||
2. Every transaction has **three hidden currencies**:
|
||||
a. Money
|
||||
b. Time
|
||||
c. Risk
|
||||
A lower price **must** reduce at least one of the buyer’s time or risk costs, or it is not a bargain.
|
||||
|
||||
3. **Intrinsic value = Utility ÷ Scarcity ÷ Effort to replace.**
|
||||
Price can never sustainably exceed intrinsic value; it can only temporarily exploit information asymmetry.
|
||||
|
||||
4. **Market layer rule**
|
||||
Layer 1: Global auction (eBay, StockX) → highest reach, lowest friction, maximum price discovery.
|
||||
Layer 2: Local classified (FB, Craigslist) → moderate reach, moderate friction.
|
||||
Layer 3: Physical yard sale / flea market → lowest reach, highest friction, therefore **price floor**.
|
||||
Price descends as you descend layers; move the item upward if the layer’s ceiling is above your Fair Price.
|
||||
|
||||
5. **Elasticity test**
|
||||
If 10 % price cut doubles inquiries, demand is elastic → cut more.
|
||||
If 10 % cut does nothing, demand is inelastic → hold or raise.
|
||||
|
||||
6. **Anchoring corollary**
|
||||
The first number a buyer sees becomes the anchor.
|
||||
Therefore the *displayed* anchor should be 110–120 % of Fair Price when negotiation is expected; 100 % when it is not.
|
||||
|
||||
7. **Friction tax**
|
||||
Every extra step (no photo, must pick up today, cash only, no measurements) is a hidden 5–15 % price reduction.
|
||||
Remove friction before cutting price.
|
||||
|
||||
8. **Sunk-cost immorality**
|
||||
Money already spent is irrelevant to the buyer; only **future utility** matters.
|
||||
Ask: “What will this object do for the next owner tomorrow?” not “What did it cost me yesterday?”
|
||||
|
||||
9. **End-of-life coefficient**
|
||||
If the next logical step for the item is landfill, the Fair Price approaches zero rapidly, regardless of original cost.
|
||||
|
||||
10. **Decision shortcut**
|
||||
If you would not re-buy the item at the price you’re asking, the price is wrong.
|
||||
|
||||
Burn these ten lines into memory; every pricing decision reduces to a 30-second mental checklist.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
PRICING FIRST-PRINCIPLES GUIDE
|
||||
(Use anywhere, any time, for any item)
|
||||
|
||||
1. ONE EQUATION
|
||||
Fair Price = (Replacement Cost) × (Condition Factor) × (Utility Factor) × (Liquidity Factor)
|
||||
|
||||
2. DEFINE EACH FACTOR
|
||||
• Replacement Cost (RC) – Cheapest *online delivered* price for identical or equivalent.
|
||||
• Condition Factor (CF) – 1.0 = new, 0.8 = gently used, 0.5 = worn/working, 0.2 = parts only.
|
||||
• Utility Factor (UF) – 1.0 = everyday item, 0.7–0.9 = niche or outdated, 0.3–0.5 = obsolete tech.
|
||||
• Liquidity Factor (LF) – 1.0 = sells in minutes, 0.8 = hours, 0.5 = days, 0.2–0.3 = weeks.
|
||||
|
||||
3. QUICK REFERENCE TABLE
|
||||
RC $100 → FP = 100 × CF × UF × LF
|
||||
Example chain:
|
||||
• New-in-box blender (CF 1.0, UF 1.0, LF 0.8) → $80 ask.
|
||||
• Same blender, scuffed (CF 0.6), last-year model (UF 0.9), garage-sale traffic (LF 0.3) → $100×0.6×0.9×0.3 ≈ **$16**.
|
||||
|
||||
4. PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUNDING RULE
|
||||
Always round down to the nearest “standard denomination minus 1 cent” ($0.25, $0.50, $0.75, $1, $3, $5, $10).
|
||||
Rationale: velocity beats margin at a garage sale.
|
||||
|
||||
5. BUNDLE MULTIPLIER
|
||||
Stack of 4 identical items → apply 0.7× to each; display as “4 for $X” where X = 4 × (unit FP × 0.7).
|
||||
Moves volume without extra buyers.
|
||||
|
||||
6. NEGOTIATION BUFFER
|
||||
Add 15 % to Fair Price if you *expect* to haggle.
|
||||
If you hate haggling, list at Fair Price and label “firm”.
|
||||
|
||||
7. DROP CLOCK
|
||||
After first 2 hours with zero offers, cut price 25 % or move to bundle box.
|
||||
After 4 hours, cut another 25 % or donate.
|
||||
|
||||
8. EXCEPTIONS
|
||||
• Sentimental items – price 2× Fair Price; be willing to keep.
|
||||
• Collectibles – use eBay *sold* listings for RC, ignore LF; move to online sale if >$50.
|
||||
• Free box – anything with FP < $0.50; gains traffic and goodwill.
|
||||
|
||||
Memorize the equation and table; you can price an entire table in under ten minutes without any lists.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Lewisville Garage-Sale Master Doc
|
||||
(Everything you need, nothing you don’t)
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 1 – PERMIT & LEGAL (NON-NEGOTIABLE)
|
||||
1. Create MGO Connect account
|
||||
• URL: https://lewisville.municity.us (choose “Garage-Sale Permit” tile)
|
||||
• Info needed: name, address, requested dates, email, phone.
|
||||
2. Submit no later than **Friday 10 a.m.** for a weekend sale.
|
||||
3. Print permit PDF; tape in front window or storm-door glass.
|
||||
4. Rules reminder
|
||||
• Max 2 sales per rolling 12 mo.
|
||||
• Only on your property; no street, sidewalk, or parkway blocking.
|
||||
• Temporary signs allowed **only on your lawn**; remove by 8 p.m. sale day.
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 2 – PRE-SALE TIMELINE (BACKWARD PLAN)
|
||||
T-14 Days – Pick weekend, check weather, apply permit.
|
||||
T-12 Days – Inventory sweep: every room, attic, shed.
|
||||
T-10 Days – Pre-price & sort (see pricing table).
|
||||
T-7 Days – Reserve folding tables, borrow garment rack.
|
||||
T-5 Days – Take photos for online listings (FB Marketplace, Nextdoor, Craigslist).
|
||||
T-3 Days – Make change run: $100 in $1s, $5s, quarters.
|
||||
T-1 Day – Post directional signs on your lawn only; final lawn mow, extension cords ready.
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 3 – SPACE LAYOUT (DRIVEWAY MAP)
|
||||
[Street]
|
||||
┌────────────────────────────┐
|
||||
│ SIGN 1 │ SIGN 2 │
|
||||
│ “Yard Sale →” │
|
||||
├───────────┬────────────────┤
|
||||
│ CHECKOUT │ ELECTRONICS │
|
||||
│ (folding │ (power strip) │
|
||||
│ table) │ │
|
||||
├───────────┼────────────────┤
|
||||
│ $1-$2 │ CLOTHES │
|
||||
│ TABLES │ (garment rack)│
|
||||
├───────────┴────────────────┤
|
||||
│ FREE BOX at curb edge │
|
||||
└────────────────────────────┘
|
||||
Keep a 3-ft wide path; fire-code egress.
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 4 – PRICING CHEAT-SHEET (STICKER COLORS)
|
||||
Blue = $0.25 Yellow = $1 Green = $3 Red = $5
|
||||
Bundle deals: 3 blue → $0.50, 3 yellow → $2.
|
||||
Hardback books = yellow, DVDs = blue, kids clothes = green, small appliances = red, furniture = masking-tape tag with Sharpie.
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 5 – INVENTORY & CONDITION CHECK
|
||||
• Electronics: plug-in, wipe, include remote.
|
||||
• Clothes: no stains, on hangers.
|
||||
• Glassware: newspaper wrap, label “Set of 4 – $3”.
|
||||
• Furniture: tighten screws, legs taped together.
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 6 – ADVERTISING STACK (FREE)
|
||||
1. FB Marketplace listing
|
||||
Title: “Multi-Family Garage Sale – Lewisville (Permit #2025-####)”
|
||||
Photos: wide shot of driveway + 3 best items.
|
||||
Description: “Fri-Sat 8-2, rain or shine. Cash & Venmo. No early birds.”
|
||||
2. Nextdoor event
|
||||
3. Craigslist “Garage-Sales” subcategory
|
||||
4. Yard Sale Search & gsalr.com (upload same photos)
|
||||
Post at 7 p.m. the night before for algorithm bump.
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 7 – DAY-OF KIT
|
||||
□ Cash apron or fanny pack
|
||||
□ Square reader / Venmo QR taped to checkout table
|
||||
□ 2 power strips + extension cords
|
||||
□ Blue tape, Sharpies, extra stickers
|
||||
□ Folding chair & water cooler for helpers
|
||||
□ Wagon or laundry basket for quick restocking
|
||||
□ “ALL SALES FINAL” sign
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 8 – HAGGLE & UPSELL SCRIPT
|
||||
Buyer: “Will you take $1 for this $3 item?”
|
||||
You: “How about 2 for $5 on any green-tag items?”
|
||||
(Converts single-item haggle into higher basket size.)
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 9 – END-OF-SALE WRAP
|
||||
• 1:30 p.m. announce “Fill-a-bag $5” over megaphone app.
|
||||
• 2:00 p.m. shut gates, box leftovers.
|
||||
• 2:30 p.m. load car, drop at Goodwill (1515 S. State Hwy 121 Bldg B).
|
||||
• 3:00 p.m. remove lawn signs, scan donation receipt for taxes.
|
||||
|
||||
────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
SECTION 10 – POST-MORTEM SHEET
|
||||
Date: ___/___/___
|
||||
Gross: $____
|
||||
Hours worked: ___
|
||||
Effective hourly wage = Gross / Hours
|
||||
Traffic sources (circle): FB / Nextdoor / Drive-by / Other
|
||||
Top-selling category: __________
|
||||
Biggest bottleneck: __________
|
||||
Action for next sale: __________
|
||||
|
||||
Keep this one-page printout in your permit folder for instant reuse.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Garage-Sale Playbook – First-Principles Edition
|
||||
(Applies anywhere, tuned for Lewisville, Texas)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user