101 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
101 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
# Millions & Billions
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## OpenAI Tesla and IBM
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### News
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#### IBM invests in Huggingface
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- Arvind Krishna CEO of IBM
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- Froze thousands of jobs earlier this year
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- 3900 layoffs planned
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- 7800 positions frozen
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- Says AI could take over 30% to 50% of repetitive tasks (and do them better than humans)
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- $235M Series D Funding Round
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- Hugging Face now worth $4.5B
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- They have collaborated on WatsonX
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- Doubling down on AI
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#### Tesla Giga Computer
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- Turned on HPC cluster worth $300M
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- Powered by 10000 Nvidia H100 compute GPUs
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- Primarily for FSD and other HPC workloads
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- Elon has said they will invest $4B in more AI
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- Plan is to invest over the next 2 years
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- Investing another $1B into Dojo supercomputer
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- Doubling down on AI
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#### OpenAI Revenue Explodes
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- On track to generate more than $1B in revenue
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- Up from $28M in revenue last year
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- >35x in revenue growth
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- ChatGPT costs $700k per day (estimated)
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- Not sure if they are cash positive
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- Microsoft entitled to 75% of revenue
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- Could take a decade to pay it off
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- That timeframe may shorten quite a lot
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- Looks like their investment paid off!
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### Analysis
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#### AI Investment Growth
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- Global AI Investment
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- 2020: $30B
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- 2021: $66.8B
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- 2022: $92B
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- 2023: ???
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- 2025: $200B (Goldman Sachs forecast)
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- Current opinions mixed
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- Some signs of investment slowing or accelerating
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- But we’re only in September
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- Consensus seems to be things are chugging along more or less as expected
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#### Tech Layoffs New Jobs
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- 150000+ US tech layoffs as of June
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- Total unemployment remains at 3.5%
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- Government source (MLS)
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- About 375k open jobs as of January
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- Forecasts said 272k new tech jobs in 2023
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- Remains to be seen… (not a government source)
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- AI expected to destroy 85M jobs by 2025
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- But create up to 97M jobs
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- Net gain of 12M
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- Not a government source so take it with a grain of salt
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- That’s a LOT of reskilling!
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- Generative AI job postings up 20% in May
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- Maybe it’s a wash? So far so good.
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- Just make sure you’re up to date on Generative AI tools
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#### Public Sentiment
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- Reuters/Ipsos poll: 61% of Americans view AI as a potential threat to human civilization
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- Pew Research poll: 58% of Americans more concerned than excited about the rise of AI
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- Economist/YouGov poll: ~75% of Americans believe AI should be regulated by government
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- 79% Democrat
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- 73% Republican
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### Conclusion
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#### Predictions
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- AI investment may cool slightly
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- OpenAI lawsuits seem to have spooked the markets
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- Still turning red hot fast
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- This will be brief if at all
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- Americans are largely united on regulations fears
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- Regulatory capture still a primary concern
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- Rarely see this much consensus!
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- State of jobs right now seems good
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- Post-Labor Economics will have to wait (and UBI)
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- Keep your eyes open though we’re in for an interesting future
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- Many industries are being disrupted (tech marketing translation copywriting etc)
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### Takeaways
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- Skill up!
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- Learn to use AI tools
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- Learn the basics of AI
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- Job market transformation is actively happening
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- I’m happy to do remote training groups ping me
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- Might do paywalled training not sure
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- Reminds me of early 2000’s with the rise of Microsoft and developer and IT certifications
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- Voter solidarity
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- Americans are rarely this united on something
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- Don’t count the chickens yet
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- CONSTANT VIGILANCE!
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